Effect of ambient air pollution and temperature on the risk of stillbirth: a distributed lag nonlinear time series analysis

Ranjbaran, Mehdi and Mohammadi, Rasool and Yaseri, Mehdi and Kamari, Mehdi and Habibelahi, Abbas (2020) Effect of ambient air pollution and temperature on the risk of stillbirth: a distributed lag nonlinear time series analysis. Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering.

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Abstract

Objectives This study aimed to determine the effect of ambient air pollution and temperature on stillbirth in Tehran. Methods In this time-series study, the effect of O3 (ppb), CO (ppm), NO2 (ppb), SO2 (ppb), PM2.5 (μg/m3), and minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature (°C) on stillbirth was evaluated in Tehran, Iran between March 2015 and March 2018. Using a quasi-Poisson regression model in combination with a Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM), the Relative Risk (RR) was estimated through comparing the high temperature (99th, 95th, and 75th percentiles) and low temperature (1st, 5th, and 25th percentiles) with the median. The effect of air pollution was estimated for each 1-, 5-, or 10-unit increase in the concentration during lags (days) 0–21. Results Among air pollutants, only a 5-ppm increase in the SO2 concentration in lag 0 increased the risk of stillbirth significantly (RR = 1.062; 1.002–1.125). The largest effect of heat was observed while comparing the 99th percentile of minimum daily temperature (26.9 °C) with the median temperature (13.2 °C), which was not statistically significant (RR = 1.25; 0.95–1.65). As for cold, a non-significant protective effect was observed while comparing the 1st percentile of maximum daily temperature (3.1 °C) with the median temperature (23.2 °C) (RR = 0.92; 0.72–1.19). Conclusion Each 5-ppm increase in the mean daily SO2 in lag 0 increased the risk of stillbirth by 6% while other air pollutants had no significant effects on stillbirth. In lags 0 and 1, the heat increased the risk of stillbirth while the cold had protective effects, which were not statistically significant.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences > School of Medicine
Depositing User: samira sepahvandy
Date Deposited: 19 Dec 2020 08:45
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2020 08:45
URI: http://eprints.lums.ac.ir/id/eprint/2516

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